For the third month in a row, U.S. existing home sales fell in May, driven by record-high prices and a resurgence in mortgage rates, deterring potential buyers.
Despite this downturn, there was a silver lining: the National Association of Realtors reported a significant increase in housing inventory, reaching its highest level in nearly two years. If this trend continues, it could help stabilize prices and improve affordability.
However, the drop in home sales, alongside declining housing starts and building permits, indicates that the rising mortgage rates from April to May have dampened the housing market’s recovery.
Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, stated, “Poor affordability and still-low, though rising listings in the resale market are keeping buyers at bay, with little change expected until the Federal Reserve reduces policy rates.”
In May, home sales decreased by 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million units, slightly above the 4.10 million units predicted by economists polled by Reuters. Year-on-year, home resales, which make up a substantial portion of U.S. housing sales, fell by 2.8%.
Freddie Mac data showed that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage peaked at 7.22% in early May, a six-month high, before dipping to just below 7.0% by the end of the month.
The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range since last July, having increased it by 525 basis points since March 2022. While residential investment grew by double digits in the first quarter, it is expected to detract from GDP this quarter.
Regionally, sales fell by 1.6% in the South, remained unchanged in the Midwest and Northeast, and held steady in the West.
Housing inventory rose by 6.7% to 1.28 million units, the highest since August 2022, with an 18.5% increase from a year ago. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, attributed part of this rise in inventory in Texas and Florida to soaring costs such as property insurance.
Homeowners nationwide are facing increased insurance premiums due to rising claims, many related to flooding and wildfires. However, entry-level homes under $250,000 remain scarce, with sales continuing to decline year-on-year.
At the current sales pace, it would take 3.7 months to deplete the existing home inventory, up from 3.1 months a year ago. A four-to-seven-month supply is considered a balanced market.
The PHLX housing index fell, underperforming in a mostly rising stock market, while the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, and U.S. Treasury yields dropped.
Despite improved supply, the median existing home price surged by 5.8% year-on-year to a record high of $419,300, the largest increase since October 2022. Most homes sold last month were priced at $750,000 or more.
Approximately 30% of houses sold above the listing price, indicating multiple offers in some areas, with home prices rising across all four regions.
Conrad DeQuadros, a senior economic advisor at Brean Capital, noted, “There might be some suggestion that high prices are bringing more listings onto the market. Housing is not likely to be the driver of the macro economy in the months ahead.”
In May, properties typically remained on the market for 24 days, up from 18 days a year ago.
First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales, up from 28% a year ago but still below the 40% level that economists and realtors consider indicative of a robust housing market.
All-cash sales constituted 28% of transactions, up from 25% a year ago, while distressed sales, including foreclosures, remained steady at 2%.
Despite the challenges in the housing market, the broader economy continues to show resilience, with signs of cooling inflation following a heated first quarter.
S&P Global’s survey on Friday showed its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, tracking the manufacturing and services sectors, edged up to 54.6 in June, the highest level since April 2022. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector, with both services and manufacturing contributing to the activity increase.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, remarked, “Slow-and-steady economic growth is consistent with expectations for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates gradually in the second half of 2024.